November 2002

Online retail sales this Christmas will exceed those of previous years by a wide margin. That seems to be the consensus of the leading global research consultancies.

Forrester Research says that European online sales over the period (nowadays known in politically correct terms as the "holiday") will be up a massive 86 per cent over last year's to 7.6 billion euros, and adds that monthly UK sales will break the £1 billion mark for the first time in December.

That analysis is echoed by estimates from Royal Mail and IMRG, who also predict sales of £1 billion, and say ten million people will shop online - 40 per cent more than last year. They says shoppers will make 4.2 purchases a month in December, compared with 3.7 last year.

Forrester says Europeans will spend $9.5 billion online sales over the season - nearly as much as the Americans. GartnerG2 actually says Europeans will spend more than the Americans ­$15.77 billion compared with $15.66 billion. It puts worldwide online holiday sales in 2002 at $38.2 billion - up 48.4 per cent.

The figures vary widely between consultancies because they are calculated in different ways, but the trend is evident. Moreover, holiday Web shopping in the US started building up earlier this year than in the past, according to Nielsen/NetRatings. It puts the volume of shopping "trips" in the first week of November up 12 per cent on last year's, with visits to toys and games sites up 34 per cent.

A more sober note is struck by Forrester's finding that US online sales fell from $20 billion to $17 billion in the third quarter of this year - the first decline in e-commerce history, it says. It thinks spending will rebound but not fully recover in the remainder of the year. The reason for the dip: "lingering economic concerns".